28 November 2022: Clinical Research
Retrospective Study to Identify Risk Factors for Severe Disease and Mortality Using the Modified Early Warning Score in 5127 Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to an Emergency Department in Poland Between March 2020 and April 2021
Sławomir Butkiewicz 1ABDEF , Artur Zaczyński 2B , Igor Pańkowski 1B , Piotr Tomaka 3DF , Ewa Rzońca 4DF , Daniel Ślęzak 5F , Marcin Podgórski 6D , Robert Gałązkowski 6DF , Jarosław Hiczkiewicz 7D , Patryk Rzońca 8ACDEF*DOI: 10.12659/MSM.938647
Med Sci Monit 2022; 28:e938647
Table 4 Results of the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to predict mortality in patients with COVID-19 (from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021).
| Variable | HRc | 95% CI | p-value | HRa | 95% CI | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age >60 | 2.47 | 2.11–2.90 | 2.27 | 1.94–2.67 | ||
| Sex (Male) | 1.13 | 1.00–1.27 | 0.052 | – | – | – |
| Fever (>38°C) | 0.57 | 0.49–0.66 | – | – | – | |
| Cough | 0.52 | 0.45–0.61 | 0.72 | 0.62–0.85 | ||
| Muscle pain | 0.33 | 0.23–0.45 | 0.60 | 0.43–0.86 | 0.005 | |
| Diarrhea | 0.65 | 0.49–0.86 | 0.002 | – | – | – |
| Chest/back pain | 0.50 | 0.37–0.69 | – | – | – | |
| Loss/change in sense of taste | 0.34 | 0.23–0.51 | – | – | – | |
| Loss/change in sense of smell | 0.34 | 0.24–0.49 | 0.59 | 0.41–0.85 | 0.005 | |
| Headache | 0.32 | 0.23–0.45 | 0.58 | 0.41–0.83 | 0.003 | |
| Diabetes | 1.09 | 0.93–1.29 | 0.296 | – | – | – |
| Hypertension | 0.84 | 0.73–0.96 | 0.010 | 0.72 | 0.62–0.84 | |
| Acute coronary syndromes | 1.02 | 0.82–1.27 | 0.844 | – | – | – |
| Stroke history | 1.05 | 0.84–1.31 | 0.682 | – | – | – |
| Cancer | 1.27 | 1.00–1.61 | 0.049 | 1.39 | 1.10–1.76 | 0.005 |
| Heart failure | 1.24 | 1.03–1.48 | 0.021 | 1.31 | 1.07–0.61 | 0.009 |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 1.06 | 0.77–1.46 | 0.728 | – | – | – |
| Renal failure | 1.22 | 1.01–1.48 | 0.040 | 1.37 | 1.11–1.69 | 0.004 |
| Ventilator therapy | 1.53 | 1.25–1.84 | 1.23 | 1.01–1.49 | 0.036 | |
| Nasal high-flow therapy | 0.93 | 0.80–1.08 | 0.333 | – | – | – |
| Intensive care unit admission | 2.26 | 1.98–2.58 | 2.33 | 2.05–2.65 | ||
| MEWS ≥5 | 1.61 | 1.44–1.81 | 1.43 | 1.18–1.73 | ||
| WBC count >10 | 2.88 | 2.34–3.54 | ||||
| RBC count | 2.30 | 1.80–2.95 | 3.17 | 2.22–4.53 | ||
| Hemoglobin | 3.65 | 1.88–7.08 | – | – | – | |
| Hematocrit | 1.38 | 1.06–1.81 | 0.017 | – | – | – |
| Platelet count | 1.88 | 1.47–2.39 | – | – | – | |
| Neutrophil count >8 | 3.64 | 2.89–4.58 | 2.29 | 1.57–3.35 | ||
| Lymphocyte count | 3.76 | 2.90–4.88 | 2.05 | 1.55–2.71 | ||
| Monocyte count | 4.88 | 3.66–6.51 | – | – | – | |
| Percentage of lung parenchyma affected >50% | 2.02 | 1.69–2.40 | 2.10 | 1.36–3.24 | 0.001 | |
| Diastolic blood pressure | 2.52 | 1.86–3.41 | – | – | – | |
| MAP | 3.56 | 2.25–5.63 | 2.17 | 1.18–3.98 | 0.013 | |
| Heart rate >125 | 2.65 | 1.85–3.79 | – | – | – | |
| Respiratory rate >24 | 3.60 | 2.60–4.99 | 2.10 | 1.39–3.15 | ||
| Oxygen saturation | 3.27 | 2.58–4.15 | 2.65 | 1.83–3.84 | ||
| HRc – crude hazard ratio; HRa – adjusted hazard ratio; 95% CI – 95% confidence interval; MEWS – modified early warning score; WBC – white blood cells; RBC – red blood cells; MAP – mean arterial pressure. | ||||||