19 April 2026 : Database Analysis
Divergent Trends in Stroke Subtype Mortality Attributable to High Systolic Blood Pressure in China, 1990 to 2021: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis and Projection
Yaoyao Li A 1, Linfeng Li B 1,2, Min Wang C 3, Qiaohong Xu D 4, Lixin Liu D 1,2, Xinyi Wang E 1,2, Xue Liu F 1,2, Hengjie Li A 1, Fahuan Song A 3, Wenwei Cai A 1*DOI: 10.12659/MSM.951794
Med Sci Monit 2026; 32:e951794
Table 2 Joinpoint regression results for ASMRs of stroke and stroke subtypes attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China, 1990 to 2021 (maximum 3 joinpoints).
| Both sexes | Women | Men | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment | Period | APC (95% CI) | P value | Segment | Period | APC (95% CI) | P value | Segment | Period | APC (95% CI) | P value | |
| 1 | 1990–1998 | −0.41 (−0.93 to 0.11) | 0.11 | 1 | 1990–1998 | −0.84 (−1.45 to −0.24) | 0.009 | 1 | 1990–1998 | 0.01 (−0.59 to 0.61) | 0.98 | |
| 2 | 1998–2004 | 1.57 (0.55 to 2.60) | 0.004 | 2 | 1998–2003 | 1.28 (−0.38 to 2.97) | 0.13 | 2 | 1998–2004 | 2.25 (1.01 to 3.51) | 0.001 | |
| 3 | 2004–2007 | −4.55 (−8.66 to −0.26) | 0.04 | 3 | 2003–2015 | −3.86 (−4.18 to −3.53) | <0.001 | 3 | 2004–2019 | −2.39 (−2.62 to −2.15) | <0.001 | |
| 4 | 2007–2021 | −2.48 (−2.69 to −2.27) | <0.001 | 4 | 2015–2021 | −1.60 (−2.56 to −0.62) | 0.003 | 4 | 2019–2021 | −0.79 (−6.23 to 4.95) | 0.77 | |
| 1 | 1990–1998 | 0.64 (0.21 to 1.07) | 0.005 | 1 | 1990–1997 | 0.29 (−0.45 to 1.03) | 0.43 | 1 | 1990–1999 | 0.96 (0.38 to 1.55) | 0.002 | |
| 2 | 1998–2004 | 3.42 (2.56 to 4.29) | <0.001 | 2 | 1997–2004 | 2.68 (1.80 to 3.56) | <0.001 | 2 | 1999–2003 | 5.23 (2.14 to 8.40) | 0.002 | |
| 3 | 2004–2007 | −2.91 (−6.24 to 0.53) | 0.09 | 3 | 2004–2007 | −4.45 (−8.92 to 0.23) | 0.06 | 3 | 2003–2011 | −0.32 (−1.03 to 0.40) | 0.37 | |
| 4 | 2007–2021 | −1.23 (−1.39 to −1.06) | <0.001 | 4 | 2007–2021 | −1.71 (−1.95 to −1.47) | <0.001 | 4 | 2011–2021 | −1.39 (−1.82 to −0.96) | <0.001 | |
| 1 | 1990–1997 | −0.74 (−1.46 to −0.02) | 0.05 | 1 | 1990–1997 | −1.18 (−1.88 to −0.47) | 0.002 | 1 | 1990–1998 | −0.12 (−0.74 to 0.49) | 0.68 | |
| 2 | 1997–2004 | 1.64 (0.78 to 2.50) | <0.001 | 2 | 1997–2004 | 1.16 (0.32 to 2.00) | 0.009 | 2 | 1998–2004 | 2.74 (1.54 to 3.94) | <0.001 | |
| 3 | 2004–2017 | −4.08 (−4.36 to −3.81) | <0.001 | 3 | 2004–2015 | −5.14 (−5.47 to −4.80) | <0.001 | 3 | 2004–2018 | −3.49 (−3.75 to −3.24) | <0.001 | |
| 4 | 2017–2021 | −1.55 (−3.19 to 0.11) | 0.07 | 4 | 2015–2021 | −2.27 (−3.13 to −1.40) | <0.001 | 4 | 2018–2021 | −1.35 (−4.07 to 1.45) | 0.32 | |
| 1 | 1990–1995 | −0.85 (−2.00 to 0.32) | 0.14 | 1 | 1990–1998 | −2.86 (−3.69 to −2.01) | <0.001 | 1 | 1990–1996 | −0.96 (−2.23 to 0.34) | 0.14 | |
| 2 | 1995–2000 | −6.63 (−8.11 to −5.13) | <0.001 | 2 | 1998–2006 | −13.89 (−14.58 to −13.19) | <0.001 | 2 | 1996–2000 | −6.44 (−9.81 to −2.93) | 0.001 | |
| 3 | 2000–2006 | −13.74 (−14.41 to −13.06) | <0.001 | 3 | 2006–2013 | −3.39 (−4.24 to −2.54) | <0.001 | 3 | 2000–2006 | −11.95 (−12.93 to −10.96) | <0.001 | |
| 4 | 2006–2021 | −2.15 (−2.29 to −2.01) | <0.001 | 4 | 2013–2021 | −0.93 (−1.57 to −0.30) | 0.006 | 4 | 2006–2021 | −2.28 (−2.48 to −2.08) | <0.001 | |
| APC – annual percentage change; CI – confidence interval; ICH – intracerebral hemorrhage; IS – ischemic stroke; SAH – subarachnoid hemorrhage. | ||||||||||||