16 June 2026 : Database Analysis
Population Dynamic Projections of Near Vision Loss and Refractive Disorders in China and the G20 From 1990 to 2038
Xin Liu
BCDEF 1, Ang Ji A 1*
DOI: 10.12659/MSM.951896
Med Sci Monit 2026; 32:e951896
Table 1 Overall and sex-specific burdens and trends of near vision loss among individuals aged 40 years and older in China and the G20, 1990 to 2021.
| Country | Measure | Sex | Absolute number, 1990 (95% UI) | Absolute number, 2021 (95% UI) | % Change (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 1990 (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 2021 (95% UI) | EAPC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALYs | Both | 734 155.51 (244 222.86–1 657 407.94) | 3 001 675.51 (1 060 286.57–6 602 557.87) | 308.86 (334.15–298.37) | 251.97 (84.47–566.43) | 408.09 (143.71–898.98) | 2.00 (1.77–2.23) | |
| DALYs | Female | 396 291.88 (132 954.49–889 544.79) | 1 606 306.49 (575 783.38–3 497 856.84) | 305.33 (333.07–293.22) | 271.16 (91.45–607.11) | 432.93 (154.64–944.73) | 1.93 (1.72–2.14) | |
| DALYs | Male | 337 863.63 (110 780.78–768 953.52) | 1 395 369.03 (484 000.48–3 100 792.25) | 313.00 (336.90–303.25) | 232.65 (76.98–527.10) | 382.89 (132.33–852.03) | 2.07 (1.82–2.32) | |
| Prevalence | Both | 72 849 159.55 (34 448 026.68–128 858 722.58) | 296 505 506.88 (150 284 302.70–484 072 819.07) | 307.01 (336.26–275.66) | 25 176.52 (11 889.07–44 399.09) | 40 341.49 (20 280.59–66 174.11) | 1.95 (1.72–2.17) | |
| Prevalence | Female | 39 545 736.31 (18 833 002.25–69 208 687.05) | 159 286 155.05 (81 982 501.78–255 526 198.71) | 302.79 (335.31–269.21) | 27 187.07 (12 924.84–47 478.25) | 42 918.29 (21 928.16–69 160.71) | 1.88 (1.67–2.08) | |
| Prevalence | Male | 33 303 423.25 (15 637 956.19–60 387 067.55) | 137 219 351.82 (68 337 045.82–230 569 015.68) | 312.03 (336.99–281.82) | 23 130.45 (10 836.23–41 886.77) | 37 711.62 (18 627.46–63 685.41) | 2.02 (1.78–2.27) | |
| YLDs | Both | 734 155.51 (244 222.86–1 657 407.94) | 3 001 675.51 (1 060 286.57–6 602 557.87) | 308.86 (334.15–298.37) | 251.97 (84.47–566.43) | 408.09 (143.71–898.98) | 2.00 (1.77–2.23) | |
| YLDs | Female | 396 291.88 (132 954.49–889 544.79) | 1 606 306.49 (575 783.38–3 497 856.84) | 305.33 (333.07–293.22) | 271.16 (91.45–607.11) | 432.93 (154.64–944.73) | 1.93 (1.72–2.14) | |
| YLDs | Male | 337 863.63 (110 780.78–768 953.52) | 1 395 369.03 (484 000.48–3 100 792.25) | 313.00 (336.90–303.25) | 232.65 (76.98–527.10) | 382.89 (132.33–852.03) | 2.07 (1.82–2.32) | |
| DALYs | Both | 2 477 502.81 (836 027.69–5 598 162.39) | 7 725 267.88 (2 765 870.89–16 535 607.98) | 211.82 (230.83–195.38) | 236.02 (79.80–533.24) | 360.98 (129.13–772.04) | 1.96 (1.74–2.17) | |
| DALYs | Female | 1 399 099.52 (476 012.85–3 133 322.21) | 4 214 709.06 (1 532 627.30–8 976 980.72) | 201.24 (221.97–186.50) | 255.12 (86.78–572.04) | 383.17 (139.28–815.60) | 1.89 (1.69–2.10) | |
| DALYs | Male | 1 078 403.30 (361 449.57–2 455 009.45) | 3 510 558.81 (1 228 729.91–7 621 825.64) | 225.53 (239.95–210.46) | 214.98 (72.34–488.42) | 337.33 (118.00–732.08) | 2.05 (1.82–2.28) | |
| Prevalence | Both | 247 834 450.63 (119 538 834.75–433 648 266.26) | 769 627 604.45 (394 697 681.21–1 214 896 822.50) | 210.54 (230.18–180.16) | 23 675.04 (11 402.57–41 440.79) | 35 934.92 (18 419.40–56 708.54) | 1.92 (1.71–2.13) | |
| Prevalence | Female | 140 728 443.77 (68 225 233.28–242 492 542.44) | 422 339 664.32 (218 979 843.65–656 287 888.60) | 200.11 (220.97–170.64) | 25 668.85 (12 429.05–44 312.53) | 38 311.63 (19 874.96–59 492.72) | 1.86 (1.66–2.06) | |
| Prevalence | Male | 107 106 006.85 (51 259 280.02–190 443 235.11) | 347 287 940.14 (175 255 078.44–559 520 483.41) | 224.25 (241.90–193.80) | 21 471.19 (10 257.66–38 147.61) | 33 394.29 (16 825.36–53 805.87) | 2.01 (1.78–2.23) | |
| YLDs | Both | 2 477 502.81 (836 027.69–5 598 162.39) | 7 725 267.88 (2 765 870.89–16 535 607.98) | 211.82 (230.83–195.38) | 236.02 (79.80–533.24) | 360.98 (129.13–772.04) | 1.96 (1.74–2.17) | |
| YLDs | Female | 1 399 099.52 (476 012.85–3 133 322.21) | 4 214 709.06 (1 532 627.30–8 976 980.72) | 201.24 (221.97–186.50) | 255.12 (86.78–572.04) | 383.17 (139.28–815.60) | 1.89 (1.69–2.10) | |
| YLDs | Male | 1 078 403.30 (361 449.57–2 455 009.45) | 3 510 558.81 (1 228 729.91–7 621 825.64) | 225.53 (239.95–210.46) | 214.98 (72.34–488.42) | 337.33 (118.00–732.08) | 2.05 (1.82–2.28) | |
| ASR – age-standardized rate; DALYs – disability-adjusted life-years; EAPC – estimated annual percentage change; UI – uncertainty interval; YLDs – years lived with disability. | ||||||||