16 June 2026 : Database Analysis
Population Dynamic Projections of Near Vision Loss and Refractive Disorders in China and the G20 From 1990 to 2038
Xin Liu
BCDEF 1, Ang Ji A 1*
DOI: 10.12659/MSM.951896
Med Sci Monit 2026; 32:e951896
Table 2 Overall and sex-specific burdens and trends of refractive disorders among individuals aged 40 years and older in China and the G20, 1990 to 2021.
| Country | Measure | Sex | Absolute number, 1990 (95% UI) | Absolute number, 2021 (95% UI) | % Change (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 1990 (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 2021 (95% UI) | EAPC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALYs | Both | 475 520.73 (327 550.65–690 377.25) | 1044 984.91 (706 993.12–152 7301.15) | 119.76 (115.84–121.23) | 172.63 (119.37–249.52) | 143.93 (97.57–210.04) | −0.50 (−0.73 to −0.27) | |
| DALYs | Female | 263 269.68 (182 330.56–381 832.57) | 583 554.89 (395 042.23–851 505.15) | 121.66 (116.66–123.00) | 186.48 (129.45–269.64) | 155.87 (105.61–227.39) | −0.46 (−0.70 to −0.23) | |
| DALYs | Male | 212 251.06 (144 726.08–308 685.55) | 461 430.03 (310 441.18–678 224.67) | 117.40 (114.5–119.71) | 157.20 (107.84–227.47) | 131.28 (88.6–192.36) | −0.53 (−0.77 to −0.30) | |
| Prevalence | Both | 953 6689.25 (7 43 6851.27–1 209 4440.44) | 2 214 2891.50 (17 063 883.03–28 311 604.23) | 132.19 (129.45–134.09) | 3 452.55 (2 695.64–4 373.00) | 3 044.90 (2 344.96–3 894.20) | −0.46 (−0.62 to −0.31) | |
| Prevalence | Female | 525 6958.67 (4 105 178.3–6 661 331.44) | 12 325 125.07 (9 510 367.98–15 768 757.13) | 134.45 (131.67–136.72) | 3 719.10 (2 906.06–4 709.45) | 3 293.90 (2 539.65–4 215.22) | −0.41 (−0.57 to −0.25) | |
| Prevalence | Male | 4 27 9730.58 (3 32 4887.1–5 437 528.18) | 9 817 766.43 (7 553 757.49–12 577 607.45) | 129.40 (127.19–131.31) | 3 157.51 (2 457.06–4 008.58) | 2 781.59 (2 138.68–3 565.05) | −0.51 (−0.66 to −0.36) | |
| YLDs | Both | 475 520.73 (327 550.65–690 377.25) | 1 044 984.91 (706 993.12–1 527 301.15) | 119.76 (115.84–121.23) | 172.63 (119.37–249.52) | 143.93 (97.57–210.04) | −0.50 (−0.73 to −0.27) | |
| YLDs | Female | 263 269.68 (182 330.56–381 832.57) | 583 554.89 (395 042.23–851 505.15) | 121.66 (116.66–123.00) | 186.48 (129.45–269.64) | 155.87 (105.61–227.39) | −0.46 (−0.70 to −0.23) | |
| YLDs | Male | 212 251.06 (144 726.08–308 685.55) | 461 430.03 (310 441.18–678 224.67) | 117.40 (114.5–119.71) | 157.20 (107.84–227.47) | 131.28 (88.6–192.36) | −0.53 (−0.77 to −0.30) | |
| DALYs | Both | 1958 002.80 (1 323 508.09–2 870 000.27) | 3 521 557.52 (2 338 702.23–5 219 915.82) | 79.85 (76.7–81.88) | 188.91 (127.94–276.34) | 161.72 (107.36–239.79) | −0.50 (−0.57 to −0.44) | |
| DALYs | Female | 1 058 662.03 (716 108.94–1 546 048.89) | 1 919 650.09 (1 277 225.94–2 837 164.25) | 81.33 (78.36–83.51) | 192.41 (130.11–281.02) | 168.14 (111.66–248.97) | −0.43 (−0.50 to −0.37) | |
| DALYs | Male | 899 340.78 (607 080.89–1 323 515.14) | 1 601 907.44 (1 061 087.51–2 383 233.14) | 78.12 (74.79–80.07) | 185.74 (125.98–272.10) | 154.77 (102.65–229.94) | −0.60 (−0.66 to −0.54) | |
| Prevalence | Both | 42 680 752.76 (33 278 924.85–53 803 962.14) | 80 314 238.86 (62 032 038.89–102 437 978.38) | 88.17 (86.4–90.39) | 4 103.44 (3 201.35–5 171.56) | 3 695.07 (2 851.42–4v712.72) | −0.36 (−0.42 to −0.29) | |
| Prevalence | Female | 23 123 615.76 (18 042 614.83–29 167 840.88) | 43 688 588.79 (33 806 578.04–55 685 719.41) | 88.93 (87.37–90.91) | 4 205.94 (3 280.21–5 308.07) | 3 846.06 (2 972.34–4 902.63) | −0.31 (−0.37 to −0.24) | |
| Prevalence | Male | 19 557 137.00 (15 235 894.13–24 688 018.16) | 36 625 650.07 (28 230 720.06–46 699 800.89) | 87.28 (85.29–89.16) | 4 010.33 (3 130.72–5 054.59) | 3 535.74 (2 724.41–4 507.80) | −0.43 (−0.49 to −0.36) | |
| YLDs | Both | 1 958 002.80 (1 323 508.09–2 870 000.27) | 3 521 557.52 (2 338 702.23–5 219 915.82) | 79.85 (76.7–81.88) | 188.91 (127.94–276.34) | 161.72 (107.36–239.79) | −0.50 (−0.57 to −0.44) | |
| YLDs | Female | 1 058 662.03 (716 108.94–1 546 048.89) | 1 919 650.09 (1 277 225.94–2 837 164.25) | 81.33 (78.36–83.51) | 192.41 (130.11–281.02) | 168.14 (111.66–248.97) | −0.43 (−0.50 to −0.37) | |
| YLDs | Male | 899 340.78 (607 080.89–1 323 515.14) | 1 601 907.44 (1 061 087.51–2 383 233.14) | 78.12 (74.79–80.07) | 185.74 (125.98–272.10) | 154.77 (102.65–229.94) | −0.60 (−0.66 to −0.54) | |
| ASR – age-standardized rate; DALYs – disability-adjusted life-years; EAPC – estimated annual percentage change; UI – uncertainty interval; YLDs – years lived with disability. | ||||||||