16 June 2026 : Database Analysis
Population Dynamic Projections of Near Vision Loss and Refractive Disorders in China and the G20 From 1990 to 2038
Xin Liu
BCDEF 1, Ang Ji A 1*
DOI: 10.12659/MSM.951896
Med Sci Monit 2026; 32:e951896
Table 3 Age-specific burdens and trends of near vision loss among individuals aged 40 years and older in China and the G20, 1990 to 2021.
| Country | Measure | Age | Absolute number, 1990 (95% UI) | Absolute number, 2021 (95% UI) | % Change (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 1990 (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 2021 (95% UI) | EAPC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALYs | 40–44 years | 56 826.85 (18 476.36–133 575.3) | 173 386.71 (62 400.03–381 539.31) | 205.11 (237.73–185.64) | 84.70 (27.54–199.09) | 189.42 (68.17–416.83) | 3.41 (2.97–3.86) | |
| DALYs | 45–49 years | 72 013.44 (19 648.27–185 955.69) | 383 928.51 (117 886.85–926 923.99) | 433.13 (499.99–398.46) | 139.51 (38.06–360.25) | 348.01 (106.86–840.2) | 4.26 (3.64–4.89) | |
| DALYs | 50–54 years | 99 845.14 (37 814.71–222 093.89) | 562 128.57 (222 530.86–1 238 135.01) | 463.00 (488.48–457.48) | 209.27 (79.26–465.5) | 465.11 (184.12–1024.45) | 3.64 (3.12–4.17) | |
| DALYs | 55–59 years | 126 653.06 (39 307.70–281 949.68) | 594 650.90 (208 387–1 283 355.52) | 369.51 (430.14–355.17) | 292.04 (90.64–650.12) | 540.88 (189.54–1167.3) | 2.62 (2.28–2.97) | |
| DALYs | 60–64 years | 121 873.42 (41 872.69–256 728.36) | 405 574.97 (144 955.80–848 442.06) | 232.78 (246.18–230.48) | 344.88 (118.49–726.5) | 555.54 (198.56–1162.17) | 1.94 (1.70–2.18) | |
| DALYs | 65–69 years | 100 387.91 (33 164.51–228 788.93) | 391 920.28 (136 303.05–851 023.79) | 290.41 (310.99–271.97) | 367.97 (121.56–838.61) | 510.95 (177.70–1109.5) | 1.26 (1.10–1.41) | |
| DALYs | 70–74 years | 74 966.73 (25 239.32–174 009.62) | 244 804.92 (83 432.07–537 240.56) | 226.55 (230.56–208.74) | 398.39 (134.13–924.71) | 459.33 (156.54–1008.02) | 0.44 (0.33–0.55) | |
| DALYs | 75–79 years | 49 654.85 (17 047.68–106 621.77) | 133 571.26 (45 932.27–285 389.04) | 169.00 (169.43–167.66) | 436.31 (149.79–936.86) | 403.31 (138.69–861.71) | −0.44 (−0.59 to −0.3) | |
| DALYs | 80–84 years | 23 372.05 (8 507.53–49 228.67) | 70 042.70 (24 124.42–155 355.74) | 199.69 (183.57–215.58) | 441.22 (160.61–929.35) | 353.90 (121.89–784.95) | −0.95 (−1.12 to −0.78) | |
| DALYs | 85–89 years | 7 047.67 (2 531.11–15 284.22) | 29 765.74 (9 921.55–68 258.63) | 322.35 (291.98–346.6) | 417.80 (150.05–906.08) | 312.48 (104.16–716.57) | −1.21 (−1.39 to −1.02) | |
| DALYs | 90–94 years | 1 324.08 (553.75–2757.1) | 9 472.53 (3723.84–21248.07) | 615.41 (572.47–670.67) | 431.55 (180.48–898.6) | 323.08 (127.01–724.7) | −1.19 (−1.37 to −1.01) | |
| DALYs | 95+ years | 190.32 (59.22–414.7) | 2 428.41 (688.83–5 646.12) | 1 175.96 (1063.10–1 261.5) | 470.02 (146.26–1024.15) | 379.97 (107.78–883.45) | −0.86 (−0.98 to −0.74) | |
| Prevalence | 40–44 years | 54 82 825.50 (2 591 235.17–9 764 484.96) | 16 709 953.73 (8 516 594.09–27 657 174.83) | 204.77 (228.67–183.24) | 8 171.82 (3 862.08–14 553.37) | 18 255.52 (9 304.33–30 215.3) | 3.41 (2.96–3.86) | |
| Prevalence | 45–49 years | 6 963 502.55 (2 739 901.81–13 967 453.54) | 37 148 859.00 (15 846 743.18–70 502 945.35) | 433.48 (478.37–404.77) | 13490.20 (5307.94–27058.77) | 33 673.25 (14 364.14–63 906.77) | 4.27 (3.64–4.89) | |
| Prevalence | 50–54 years | 9 709 748.06 (5 357 715.75–16 447 642.81) | 54 627 986.65 (31 347 409.66–92 054 533.24) | 462.61 (485.09–459.68) | 20 351.23 (11 229.55–34 473.57) | 45 199.75 (25 937.17–76 166.86) | 3.64 (3.12–4.16) | |
| Prevalence | 55–59 years | 12 426 918.26 (5 487 151.77–21 868 075.31) | 58 200 380.90 (30 392 846.02–86 247 941.48) | 368.34 (453.89–294.4) | 28 653.85 (12 652.21–50 423.17) | 52 937.17 (27 644.34–78 448.32) | 2.61 (2.27–2.96) | |
| Prevalence | 60–64 years | 12 056 420.62 (5 825 189.69–19 402 190.5) | 40 019 433.93 (19 810 294.57–58 668 913.15) | 231.93 (240.08–202.38) | 34 117.96 (16 484.46–54 905.44) | 54 817.26 (27 135.47–80 362.69) | 1.93 (1.70–2.17) | |
| Prevalence | 65–69 years | 10 032 400.68 (4 647 369.86–18 749 800.54) | 39 067 954.88 (20 274 924.47–62 550 034.36) | 289.42 (336.27–233.6) | 36773.22 (17034.68–68726.38) | 50 933.72 (26 432.85–81 547.81) | 1.25 (1.09–1.4) | |
| Prevalence | 70–74 years | 7 622 234.94 (3 744 053.23–14 348 712.86) | 24 829 795.44 (12 234 343.30–41 008 864.84) | 225.75 (226.77–185.8) | 40 505.77 (19 896.50–76 251.35) | 46 588.09 (22 955.27–76 944.85) | 0.43 (0.32–0.55) | |
| Prevalence | 75–79 years | 5 157 357.19 (24 84 222.25–8 540 507.85) | 13 883 120.05 (6 614 090.48–23 493 222.00) | 169.19 (166.24–175.08) | 45 316.71 (21 828.38–75 043.8) | 41 918.98 (19 970.72–70 935.92) | −0.44 (−0.58 to −0.3) | |
| Prevalence | 80–84 years | 2 474 518.85 (1 149 189.83–4 195 841.18) | 7 457 821.40 (3 268 149.55–13 324 424.54) | 201.38 (184.39–217.56) | 46 714.37 (21 694.59–79 209.77) | 37 681.26 (16 512.60–67 322.76) | −0.93 (−1.10 to −0.76) | |
| Prevalence | 85–89 years | 757 619.69 (342 689.19–1 302 645.63) | 3 235 283.42 (1 398 878.11–6 151 225.91) | 327.03 (308.21–372.21) | 44 913.13 (20 315.27–77 223.31) | 33 963.55 (14 685.23–64 574.71) | −1.18 (−1.36 to −0.99) | |
| Prevalence | 90–94 years | 144 443.83 (71 579.32–237 975.72) | 1 049 347.64 (489 321.93–1 926 313.32) | 626.47 (583.61–709.46) | 47 077.39 (23 329.26–77 561.47) | 35 789.64 (16 689.09–65 699.92) | −1.15 (−1.33 to −0.98) | |
| Prevalence | 95+ years | 211 69.38 (7 728.82–33 391.68) | 275 569.84 (90 707.35–487 226.04) | 1 201.74 (1 073.63–1 359.12) | 52 280.30 (19 087.23–82 464.71) | 43 118.53 (14 193.02–76 236.46) | −0.81 (−0.94 to −0.69) | |
| YLDs | 40–44 years | 56 826.85 (18 476.36–133 575.3) | 173 386.71 (62 400.03–381 539.31) | 205.11 (237.73–185.64) | 84.70 (27.54–199.09) | 189.42 (68.17–416.83) | 3.41 (2.97–3.86) | |
| YLDs | 45–49 years | 72 013.44 (19 648.27–185 955.69) | 383 928.51 (117 886.85–926 923.99) | 433.13 (499.99–398.46) | 139.51 (38.06–360.25) | 348.01 (106.86–840.2) | 4.26 (3.64–4.89) | |
| YLDs | 50–54 years | 99 845.14 (37 814.71–222 093.89) | 562 128.57 (222 530.86–1 238 135.01) | 463.00 (488.48–457.48) | 209.27 (79.26–465.5) | 465.11 (184.12–1024.45) | 3.64 (3.12–4.17) | |
| YLDs | 55–59 years | 126 653.06 (39 307.70–281 949.68) | 594 650.90 (20 8387.00–1 283 355.52) | 369.51 (430.14–355.17) | 292.04 (90.64–650.12) | 540.88 (189.54–1167.3) | 2.62 (2.28–2.97) | |
| YLDs | 60–64 years | 121 873.42 (41 872.69–256 728.36) | 405 574.97 (144 955.80–848 442.06) | 232.78 (246.18–230.48) | 344.88 (118.49–726.5) | 555.54 (198.56–1162.17) | 1.94 (1.70–2.18) | |
| YLDs | 65–69 years | 100 387.91 (33 164.51–228 788.93) | 391 920.28 (136 303.05–851 023.79) | 290.41 (310.99–271.97) | 367.97 (121.56–838.61) | 510.95 (177.70–1109.5) | 1.26 (1.10–1.41) | |
| YLDs | 70–74 years | 749 66.73 (25 239.32–174 009.62) | 244 804.92 (83 432.07–537 240.56) | 226.55 (230.56–208.74) | 398.39 (134.13–924.71) | 459.33 (156.54–1008.02) | 0.44 (0.33–0.55) | |
| YLDs | 75–79 years | 49 654.85 (17 047.68–106 621.77) | 133 571.26 (45 932.27–285 389.04) | 169.00 (169.43–167.66) | 436.31 (149.79–936.86) | 403.31 (138.69–861.71) | −0.44 (−0.59 to −0.3) | |
| YLDs | 80–84 years | 23 372.05 (8 507.53–49 228.67) | 70 042.70 (24 124.42–155 355.74) | 199.69 (183.57–215.58) | 441.22 (160.61–929.35) | 353.90 (121.89–784.95) | −0.95 (−1.12 to −0.78) | |
| YLDs | 85–89 years | 7 047.67 (2 531.11–15 284.22) | 29 765.74 (9 921.55–68 258.63) | 322.35 (291.98–346.6) | 417.80 (150.05–906.08) | 312.48 (104.16–716.57) | −1.21 (−1.39 to −1.02) | |
| YLDs | 90–94 years | 1 324.08 (553.75–2 757.1) | 9 472.53 (3 723.84–21 248.07) | 615.41 (572.47–670.67) | 431.55 (180.48–898.6) | 323.08 (127.01–724.7) | −1.19 (−1.37 to −1.01) | |
| YLDs | 95+ years | 190.32 (59.22–414.7) | 2428.41 (688.83–5646.12) | 1175.96 (1063.10–1261.5) | 470.02 (146.26–1024.15) | 379.97 (107.78–883.45) | −0.86 (−0.98 to −0.74) | |
| DALYs | 40–44 years | 239 237.60 (831 77.05–5 401 68.18) | 774 970.96 (277 381.51–1 594 945.52) | 223.93 (233.48–195.27) | 111.03 (38.60–250.69) | 234.92 (84.08–483.48) | 3.46 (3.09–3.83) | |
| DALYs | 45–49 years | 310 541.46 (89 371.88–782 681.01) | 1 129 561.49 (363 520.38–2 497 169.05) | 263.74 (306.75–219.05) | 179.70 (51.72–452.92) | 343.72 (110.62–759.87) | 3.13 (2.75–3.51) | |
| DALYs | 50–54 years | 369 732.06 (138 346.93–833 493.35) | 1 320 418.48 (527 178.85–2 768 207.35) | 257.13 (281.06–232.12) | 232.40 (86.96–523.9) | 411.42 (164.26–862.52) | 2.73 (2.40–3.06) | |
| DALYs | 55–59 years | 386 203.04 (123 955.04–852 764.88) | 1 269 022.95 (445 561.84–2 728 826.46) | 228.59 (259.45–220.00) | 273.85 (87.89–604.67) | 435.69 (152.97–936.88) | 2.17 (1.91–2.43) | |
| DALYs | 60–64 years | 368 523.62 (124 085.70–786 102.62) | 993 177.58 (356 450.68–2 080 479.93) | 169.50 (187.26–164.66) | 299.53 (100.85–638.93) | 422.87 (151.77–885.82) | 1.66 (1.46–1.86) | |
| DALYs | 65–69 years | 291 261.75 (97 445.75–663 695.9) | 855 312.28 (300 265.49–1 885 728.02) | 193.66 (208.14–184.13) | 303.29 (101.47–691.1) | 403.79 (141.76–890.26) | 1.19 (1.04–1.33) | |
| DALYs | 70–74 years | 210 230.89 (71 897.20–487 870.51) | 603 854.36 (211 381.54–1 316 256.34) | 187.23 (194.01–169.8) | 320.40 (109.57–743.53) | 372.71 (130.47–812.41) | 0.69 (0.59–0.79) | |
| DALYs | 75–79 years | 162 238.69 (5 5957.45–351 477.48) | 372 096.91 (132 379.76–796 433.3) | 129.35 (136.57–126.6) | 332.47 (114.67–720.27) | 358.18 (127.43–766.66) | 0.30 (0.22–0.38) | |
| DALYs | 80–84 years | 91 967.01 (34 118.61–195 420.29) | 236 654.56 (87 680.92–497 311.41) | 157.33 (156.99–154.48) | 325.98 (120.93–692.67) | 338.51 (125.42–711.35) | 0.11 (0.01–0.21) | |
| DALYs | 85–89 years | 35 527.17 (12 990.06–78 162.14) | 112 389.59 (41 695.01–243 963.37) | 216.35 (220.98–212.12) | 296.92 (108.57–653.24) | 301.73 (111.94–654.96) | −0.04 (−0.15 to 0.06) | |
| DALYs | 90–94 years | 9 707.37 (3 975.06–20 927.55) | 43 830.71 (18 086.18–93 584.92) | 351.52 (354.99–347.19) | 285.25 (116.81–614.96) | 296.65 (122.41–633.38) | −0.04 (−0.12 to 0.04) | |
| DALYs | 95+ years | 2332.15 (706.96–5 398.48) | 13 978.01 (4 288.73–32 702.3) | 499.36 (506.64–505.77) | 294.62 (89.31–682.00) | 313.48 (96.18–733.41) | 0.17 (0.13–0.21) | |
| Prevalence | 40–44 years | 23 277 560.63 (11 482 458.02–40 172 833.27) | 75 390 028.53 (40 625 885.51–115 648 811.38) | 223.87 (253.81–187.88) | 10 802.92 (5 328.91–18 643.87) | 22 853.10 (12 314.99–35 056.8) | 3.45 (3.08–3.83) | |
| Prevalence | 45–49 years | 30 307 171.80 (12 775 733.88–58 467 775.23) | 110 115 874.72 (51 068 003.43–183 459 777.77) | 263.33 (299.73–213.78) | 1 7538.23 (7 393.09–33 834.27) | 33 507.66 (15 539.72–55 825.81) | 3.12 (2.74–3.5) | |
| Prevalence | 50–54 years | 36 281 614.92 (19 745 905.01–62 502 506.6) | 129 258 864.96 (73 347 694.66–203 580 481.91) | 256.27 (271.46–225.72) | 22 805.31 (12 411.56–39 286.81) | 40 274.55 (22 853.71–63 431.72) | 2.72 (2.39–3.05) | |
| Prevalence | 55–59 years | 38 221 146.14 (17 700 632.52–66 224 973.66) | 125 122 907.63 (65 893 649.33–187 590 066.89) | 227.37 (272.27–183.26) | 27 101.52 (12 551.01–46 958.24) | 42 958.17 (22 623.12–64 404.88) | 2.16 (1.90–2.41) | |
| Prevalence | 60–64 years | 36 779 291.73 (17 995 708.15–60 235 162.84) | 98 853 125.85 (48 609 566.23–147 396 910.81) | 168.77 (170.12–144.7) | 29 893.57 (14 626.60–48 958.1) | 42 089.25 (20 696.77–62 758.01) | 1.65 (1.45–1.85) | |
| Prevalence | 65–69 years | 29 367 798.88 (13 915 265.94–53 446 227.61) | 85 993 814.58 (43 260 316.77–139 421 131.65) | 192.82 (210.88–160.86) | 30 580.27 (14 489.77–55 652.8) | 40 597.88 (20 423.29–65 821.04) | 1.17 (1.03–1.32) | |
| Prevalence | 70–74 years | 21 560 713.00 (106 25 027.66–40 294 358.36) | 618 25 721.26 (31 596 373.62–103 699 085.18) | 186.75 (197.38–157.35) | 32 859.01 (16 192.78–61 409.5) | 38 159.63 (19 501.69–64 004.41) | 0.68 (0.58–0.78) | |
| Prevalence | 75–79 years | 17 008 576.79 (8 253 603.48–27 110 053.73) | 39 045 564.27 (19 541 879.64–61 054 847.52) | 129.56 (136.77–125.21) | 34 855.28 (16 913.92–55 556.01) | 37 585.70 (18 811.23–58 772.08) | 0.30 (0.23–0.38) | |
| Prevalence | 80–84 years | 9 829 531.55 (4 623 754.88–16 237 377.4) | 25 336 136.95 (12 032 284.09–40 918 136.53) | 157.76 (160.23–152.00) | 34 841.14 (16 389.07–57 553.98) | 36 240.61 (17 210.88–58 528.98) | 0.11 (0.01–0.21) | |
| Prevalence | 85–89 years | 3 863 818.15 (1 785 486.89–6 648 892.58) | 12 255 175.20 (5 715 302.71–21 167 532.22) | 217.18 (220.10–218.36) | 32 292.04 (14 922.29–55 568.43) | 32 900.85 (15 343.58–56 827.4) | −0.04 (−0.14 to 0.07) | |
| Prevalence | 90–94 years | 1 074 373.18 (542 762.06–1 820 110.8) | 4 854 485.78 (2 438 344.53–8 113 555.77) | 351.84 (349.25–345.77) | 31 570.54 (15 949.11–53 484.1) | 32 855.12 (16 502.69–54 912.47) | −0.04 (−0.12 to 0.04) | |
| Prevalence | 95+ years | 262 853.86 (92 496.25–487 994.18) | 1 575 904.73 (568 380.68–2 846 484.88) | 499.54 (514.49–483.3) | 33 206.57 (11 685.14–61 648.75) | 35 342.51 (12 746.96–63 837.56) | 0.17 (0.13–0.2) | |
| YLDs | 40–44 years | 239 237.60 (83 177.05–540 168.18) | 774 970.96 (277 381.51–1 594 945.52) | 223.93 (233.48–195.27) | 111.03 (38.60–250.69) | 234.92 (84.08–483.48) | 3.46 (3.09–3.83) | |
| YLDs | 45–49 years | 310 541.46 (89 371.88–782 681.01) | 1 129 561.49 (363 520.38–2 497 169.05) | 263.74 (306.75–219.05) | 179.70 (51.72–452.92) | 343.72 (110.62–759.87) | 3.13 (2.75–3.51) | |
| YLDs | 50–54 years | 369 732.06 (138 346.93–833 493.35) | 1 320 418.48 (527 178.85–2 768 207.35) | 257.13 (281.06–232.12) | 232.40 (86.96–523.9) | 411.42 (164.26–862.52) | 2.73 (2.40–3.06) | |
| YLDs | 55–59 years | 386 203.04 (123 955.04–852 764.88) | 1 269 022.95 (445 561.84–2 728 826.46) | 228.59 (259.45–220.00) | 273.85 (87.89–604.67) | 435.69 (152.97–936.88) | 2.17 (1.91–2.43) | |
| YLDs | 60–64 years | 368 523.62 (124 085.70–786 102.62) | 993 177.58 (356 450.68–2 080 479.93) | 169.50 (187.26–164.66) | 299.53 (100.85–638.93) | 422.87 (151.77–885.82) | 1.66 (1.46–1.86) | |
| YLDs | 65–69 years | 29 1261.75 (97 445.75–66 3695.9) | 855 312.28 (300 265.49–1 885 728.02) | 193.66 (208.14–184.13) | 303.29 (101.47–691.1) | 403.79 (141.76–890.26) | 1.19 (1.04–1.33) | |
| YLDs | 70–74 years | 210 230.89 (71 897.20–487 870.51) | 603 854.36 (211 381.54–1 316 256.34) | 187.23 (194.01–169.8) | 320.40 (109.57–743.53) | 372.71 (130.47–812.41) | 0.69 (0.59–0.79) | |
| YLDs | 75–79 years | 162 238.69 (55 957.45–351 477.48) | 372 096.91 (132 379.76–796 433.3) | 129.35 (136.57–126.6) | 332.47 (114.67–720.27) | 358.18 (127.43–766.66) | 0.30 (0.22–0.38) | |
| YLDs | 80–84 years | 91 967.01 (341 18.61–195 420.29) | 236654.56 (87680.92–497311.41) | 157.33 (156.99–154.48) | 325.98 (120.93–692.67) | 338.51 (125.42–711.35) | 0.11 (0.01–0.21) | |
| YLDs | 85–89 years | 35 527.17 (12 990.06–78 162.14) | 112 389.59 (41 695.01–243 963.37) | 216.35 (220.98–212.12) | 296.92 (108.57–653.24) | 301.73 (111.94–654.96) | −0.04 (−0.15 to 0.06) | |
| YLDs | 90–94 years | 9 707.37 (3 975.06–20 927.55) | 43 830.71 (18 086.18–93 584.92) | 351.52 (354.99–347.19) | 285.25 (116.81–614.96) | 296.65 (122.41–633.38) | −0.04 (−0.12 to 0.04) | |
| YLDs | 95+ years | 2 332.15 (706.96–5 398.48) | 13 978.01 (4 288.73–32 702.3) | 499.36 (506.64–505.77) | 294.62 (89.31–682.00) | 313.48 (96.18–733.41) | 0.17 (0.13–0.21) | |
| ASR – age-standardized rate; DALYs – disability-adjusted life-years; EAPC – estimated annual percentage change; UI – uncertainty interval; YLDs – years lived with disability. | ||||||||