16 June 2026 : Database Analysis
Population Dynamic Projections of Near Vision Loss and Refractive Disorders in China and the G20 From 1990 to 2038
Xin Liu
BCDEF 1, Ang Ji A 1*
DOI: 10.12659/MSM.951896
Med Sci Monit 2026; 32:e951896
Table 4 Age-specific burdens and trends of refractive disorders among individuals aged 40 years and older in China and the G20, 1990 to 2021.
| Country | Measure | Age | Absolute number, 1990 (95% UI) | Absolute number, 2021 (95% UI) | % Change (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 1990 (95% UI) | ASR (per 100 000), 2021 (95% UI) | EAPC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DALYs | 40–44 years | 27 365.70 (18 713.51–39 903.81) | 35 544.27 (23 841.44–52 932.6) | 29.89 (27.40–32.65) | 40.79 (27.89–59.47) | 38.83 (26.05–57.83) | 0.01 (−0.10 to 0.13) | |
| DALYs | 45–49 years | 33 311.20 (23 196.95–48 138.52) | 68 213.60 (46 101.77–101 510.05) | 104.78 (98.74–110.87) | 64.53 (44.94–93.26) | 61.83 (41.79–92.01) | 0.12 (−0.07 to 0.31) | |
| DALYs | 50–54 years | 47 088.16 (32 033.20–69 747.7) | 111 801.40 (74 381.55–165 765.3) | 137.43 (132.20–137.66) | 98.69 (67.14–146.19) | 92.51 (61.54–137.16) | 0.07 (−0.21 to 0.35) | |
| DALYs | 55–59 years | 64 192.23 (43 172.62–96 462.95) | 145 883.03 (94 297.32–222 041.22) | 127.26 (118.42–130.18) | 148.01 (99.55–222.42) | 132.69 (85.77–201.96) | −0.16 (−0.45 to 0.13) | |
| DALYs | 60–64 years | 73 713.37 (50 209.89–109 192.77) | 130 505.73 (85 938.06–193 442.53) | 77.04 (71.16–77.16) | 208.60 (142.09–309.00) | 178.76 (117.72–264.97) | −0.39 (−0.67 to −0.11) | |
| DALYs | 65–69 years | 79 199.09 (53 462.45–114 214.06) | 181 854.59 (122 255.88–265 720.21) | 129.62 (128.68–132.65) | 290.30 (195.96–418.65) | 237.09 (159.39–346.43) | −0.55 (−0.82 to −0.29) | |
| DALYs | 70–74 years | 68 812.68 (48 269.85–98 150.04) | 154 549.71 (106 240.29–221 452.45) | 124.59 (120.10–125.63) | 365.68 (256.51–521.58) | 289.98 (199.34–415.51) | −0.71 (−0.96 to −0.46) | |
| DALYs | 75–79 years | 48 828.11 (34 949.07–67 665.63) | 108 157.67 (77 172.83–151 313.09) | 121.51 (120.82–123.62) | 429.04 (307.09–594.56) | 326.57 (233.02–456.88) | −0.91 (−1.14 to −0.68) | |
| DALYs | 80–84 years | 24 176.91 (17 354.45–34 541.01) | 66 805.69 (47 858.95–94 777.51) | 176.32 (175.77–174.39) | 456.42 (327.62–652.07) | 337.54 (241.81–478.87) | −1.05 (−1.24 to −0.85) | |
| DALYs | 85–89 years | 7 456.48 (5 252.76–10 418.35) | 31 327.00 (22 003.36–43 518.56) | 320.13 (318.89–317.71) | 442.03 (311.39–617.62) | 328.87 (230.99–456.85) | −1.13 (−1.27 to −0.99) | |
| DALYs | 90–94 years | 1 227.76 (834.67–1729.72) | 8 646.25 (5 750.54–12 367.3) | 604.23 (588.96–614.99) | 400.15 (272.04–563.75) | 294.89 (196.13–421.81) | −1.20 (−1.30 to −1.09) | |
| DALYs | 95+ years | 149.04 (101.23–212.69) | 1 695.97 (1 151.13–2 460.32) | 1 037.93 (1 037.15–1 056.76) | 368.07 (250.00–525.27) | 265.37 (180.12–384.97) | −1.23 (−1.30 to −1.15) | |
| Prevalence | 40–44 years | 553 689.64 (416 869.11–701 239.21) | 781697.78 (580357.69–994929.03) | 41.18 (39.22–41.88) | 825.24 (621.32–1045.15) | 854.00 (634.04–1 086.95) | 0.30 (0.17–0.43) | |
| Prevalence | 45–49 years | 679 039.76 (529 666.00–855 450.58) | 1 516 399.20 (1 180 950.78–1 924 875.92) | 123.32 (122.96–125.01) | 1 315.49 (1 026.11–1 657.24) | 1 374.53 (1 070.46–1 744.79) | 0.36 (0.18–0.54) | |
| Prevalence | 50–54 years | 969 890.69 (75 3785.00–1 237 166.02) | 2 494 240.47 (1 917 455.87–3 160 952.44) | 157.17 (154.38–155.50) | 2 032.85 (1 579.90–2 593.05) | 2 063.76 (1 586.52–2 615.40) | 0.24 (0.04–0.45) | |
| Prevalence | 55–59 years | 1 331 253.34 (1 032 693.60–1 707 657.82) | 3 215 913.38 (2 458 953.73–4 138 309.06) | 141.57 (138.11–142.34) | 3069.59 (2381.17–3937.50) | 2925.09 (2236.58–3764.07) | −0.09 (−0.28 to 0.10) | |
| Prevalence | 60–64 years | 1 499 276.71 (1 150 746.63–1 950 642.64) | 2 813 862.67 (2 156 171.65–3 667 035.56) | 87.68 (87.37–87.99) | 4242.74 (3256.45–5520.04) | 3854.33 (2953.45–5022.98) | −0.38 (−0.55 to −0.20) | |
| Prevalence | 65–69 years | 1 569 381.40 (1 236 412.44–1 968 153.65) | 3 820 424.46 (2 968 875.19–4 851 502.57) | 143.44 (140.12–146.5) | 5 752.48 (4532.00–7 214.16) | 4 980.77 (3 870.59–6 325.01) | −0.56 (−0.72 to −0.39) | |
| Prevalence | 70–74 years | 1 340 588.27 (1 054 324.58–1 711 391.46) | 3 159 318.09 (2 430 978.69–4 105 331.24) | 135.67 (130.57–139.88) | 7 124.10 (5 602.85–9 094.61) | 5 927.82 (4 561.24–7 702.82) | −0.75 (−0.91 to −0.59) | |
| Prevalence | 75–79 years | 944 012.77 (750 616.16–1 142 575.43) | 2 164 844.82 (1 681 312.11–2 671 290.99) | 129.32 (123.99–133.80) | 8 294.86 (6 595.52–10 039.59) | 6 536.58 (5 076.59–8 065.75) | −0.98 (−1.13 to −0.82) | |
| Prevalence | 80–84 years | 472 560.84 (372 168.16–595 308.55) | 1 333 282.39 (1 035 671.76–1 708 775.48) | 182.14 (178.28–187.04) | 8 921.08 (7 025.85–11 238.33) | 6 736.52 (5 232.82–8 633.73) | −1.14 (−1.28 to −1) | |
| Prevalence | 85–89 years | 148 842.78 (118 586.89–188 646.23) | 630 079.87 (495 263.73–810 414.67) | 323.32 (317.64–329.59) | 8 823.68 (7 030.06–11 183.31) | 6 614.49 (5 199.21–8 507.62) | −1.24 (−1.36 to −1.11) | |
| Prevalence | 90–94 years | 25 048.53 (18 722.41–32 065.60) | 17 7149.21 (13 2105.22–23 0804.60) | 607.22 (605.60–619.79) | 8 163.86 (6 102.04–10 450.88) | 6 041.95 (4 505.65–7 871.95) | −1.29 (−1.41 to −1.18) | |
| Prevalence | 95+ years | 3 104.51 (2 260.30–4 143.24) | 35 679.16 (25 786.60–47 382.66) | 1 049.27 (1 040.85–1 043.61) | 7 666.96 (5 582.09–10 232.23) | 5 582.73 (4 034.84–7 413.98) | −1.31 (−1.41 to −1.20) | |
| YLDs | 40–44 years | 27 365.70 (18 713.51–39 903.81) | 35 544.27 (23 841.44–52 932.60) | 29.89 (27.40–32.65) | 40.79 (27.89–59.47) | 38.83 (26.05–57.83) | 0.01 (−0.10 to 0.13) | |
| YLDs | 45–49 years | 33 311.20 (23 196.95–48 138.52) | 68 213.60 (46 101.77–101 510.05) | 104.78 (98.74–110.87) | 64.53 (44.94–93.26) | 61.83 (41.79–92.01) | 0.12 (−0.07 to 0.31) | |
| YLDs | 50–54 years | 47 088.16 (32 033.20–69 747.70) | 11 1801.40 (74 381.55–16 5765.30) | 137.43 (132.20–137.66) | 98.69 (67.14–146.19) | 92.51 (61.54–137.16) | 0.07 (−0.21 to 0.35) | |
| YLDs | 55–59 years | 64 192.23 (43 172.62–96 462.95) | 145 883.03 (94 297.32–22 2041.22) | 127.26 (118.42–130.18) | 148.01 (99.55–222.42) | 132.69 (85.77–201.96) | −0.16 (−0.45 to 0.13) | |
| YLDs | 60–64 years | 73 713.37 (50 209.89–109 192.77) | 130 505.73 (85 938.06–193 442.53) | 77.04 (71.16–77.16) | 208.60 (142.09–309.00) | 178.76 (117.72–264.97) | −0.39 (−0.67 to −0.11) | |
| YLDs | 65–69 years | 79 199.09 (53 462.45–114 214.06) | 181 854.59 (122 255.88–265 720.21) | 129.62 (128.68–132.65) | 290.30 (195.96–418.65) | 237.09 (159.39–346.43) | −0.55 (−0.82 to −0.29) | |
| YLDs | 70–74 years | 68 812.68 (48 269.85–98 150.04) | 154 549.71 (106 240.29–221 452.45) | 124.59 (120.10–125.63) | 365.68 (256.51–521.58) | 289.98 (199.34–415.51) | −0.71 (−0.96 to −0.46) | |
| YLDs | 75–79 years | 48 828.11 (34 949.07–67 665.63) | 108 157.67 (77 172.83–151 313.09) | 121.51 (120.82–123.62) | 429.04 (307.09–594.56) | 326.57 (233.02–456.88) | −0.91 (−1.14 to −0.68) | |
| YLDs | 80–84 years | 24 176.91 (17 354.45–34 541.01) | 66 805.69 (47 858.95–94 777.51) | 176.32 (175.77–174.39) | 456.42 (327.62–652.07) | 337.54 (241.81–478.87) | −1.05 (−1.24 to −0.85) | |
| YLDs | 85–89 years | 7 456.48 (5 252.76–10 418.35) | 31 327.00 (22 003.36–43 518.56) | 320.13 (318.89–317.71) | 442.03 (311.39–617.62) | 328.87 (230.99–456.85) | −1.13 (−1.27 to −0.99) | |
| YLDs | 90–94 years | 1 227.76 (834.67–1 729.72) | 8 646.25 (5 750.54–1 2367.3) | 604.23 (588.96–614.99) | 400.15 (272.04–563.75) | 294.89 (196.13–421.81) | −1.20 (−1.30 to −1.09) | |
| YLDs | 95+ years | 149.04 (101.23–212.69) | 1695.97 (1151.13–2460.32) | 1037.93 (1037.15–1056.76) | 368.07 (250.00–525.27) | 265.37 (180.12–384.97) | −1.23 (−1.30 to −1.15) | |
| DALYs | 40–44 years | 15 5994.38 (101 696.61–237 903.5) | 220 427.91 (141 163.19–334 634.79) | 41.31 (38.81–40.66) | 72.40 (47.20–110.41) | 66.82 (42.79–101.44) | −0.35 (−0.46 to −0.25) | |
| DALYs | 45–49 years | 187 665.14 (126 633.25–278 287.82) | 299 604.68 (197 100.62–451 273.93) | 59.65 (55.65–62.16) | 108.60 (73.28–161.04) | 91.17 (59.98–137.32) | −0.53 (−0.60 to −0.46) | |
| DALYs | 50–54 years | 234 606.67 (157 666.60–347 432.16) | 389 629.03 (256 253.75–589 974.92) | 66.08 (62.53–69.81) | 147.47 (99.10–218.38) | 121.40 (79.84–183.82) | −0.55 (−0.59 to −0.5) | |
| DALYs | 55–59 years | 278 477.67 (181 740.33–417 467.65) | 473 497.54 (300 069.26–723 126.2) | 70.03 (65.11–73.22) | 197.46 (128.87–296.01) | 162.56 (103.02–248.27) | −0.58 (−0.63 to −0.52) | |
| DALYs | 60–64 years | 296 432.19 (198 545.31–440 111.71) | 484 325.34 (316 652.38–724 247.47) | 63.38 (59.49–64.56) | 240.93 (161.37–357.72) | 206.21 (134.82–308.37) | −0.59 (−0.65 to −0.52) | |
| DALYs | 65–69 years | 269 703.80 (181 437.32–389 817.22) | 518 664.56 (343 756.20–769 800.14) | 92.31 (89.46–97.48) | 280.84 (188.93–405.91) | 244.86 (162.29–363.42) | −0.49 (−0.60 to −0.38) | |
| DALYs | 70–74 years | 217 097.84 (149 852.52–311 755.58) | 446 185.77 (301 264.33–650 096.18) | 105.52 (101.04–108.53) | 330.86 (228.38–475.12) | 275.39 (185.94–401.25) | −0.49 (−0.60 to −0.39) | |
| DALYs | 75–79 years | 168 136.03 (119 268.45–235 745.30) | 317 337.24 (221 322.45–449 882.76) | 88.74 (85.57–90.83) | 344.56 (244.41–483.11) | 305.47 (213.05–433.06) | −0.46 (−0.52 to −0.39) | |
| DALYs | 80–84 years | 99 434.80 (71 671.35–141 330.65) | 215 144.83 (153 525.11–306 900.34) | 116.37 (114.21–117.15) | 352.45 (254.04–500.95) | 307.74 (219.60–438.99) | −0.43 (−0.51 to −0.35) | |
| DALYs | 85–89 years | 38 979.11 (27 296.81–53 729.79) | 108 840.65 (75 629.43–150 528.35) | 179.23 (177.06–180.16) | 325.77 (228.13–449.05) | 292.20 (203.04–404.12) | −0.44 (−0.52 to −0.37) | |
| DALYs | 90–94 years | 9 533.44 (6 401.88–13 590.25) | 37 732.81 (25 201.30–54 680.15) | 295.79 (293.65–302.35) | 280.14 (188.12–399.35) | 255.38 (170.56–370.07) | −0.36 (−0.43 to −0.29) | |
| DALYs | 95+ years | 1 941.75 (1 297.67–2 828.61) | 10 167.16 (6 764.20–14 770.61) | 423.61 (421.26–422.19) | 245.30 (163.94–357.34) | 228.02 (151.70–331.26) | −0.23 (−0.28 to −0.17) | |
| Prevalence | 40–44 years | 3 693 140.85 (2 726 437.27–4 704 424.74) | 5 443 658.68 (4 017 189.25–6 955 363.97) | 47.40 (47.34–47.85) | 1 713.96 (1 265.32–2 183.28) | 1 650.14 (1 217.74–2 108.39) | −0.22 (−0.33 to −0.1) | |
| Prevalence | 45–49 years | 42 98174.79 (337 2004.77–538 1286.73) | 722 5176.11 (5 614 368.97–9 078 752.43) | 68.10 (66.50–68.71) | 2487.28 (1951.32–3114.06) | 2 198.58 (1 708.42–2 762.62) | −0.36 (−0.45 to −0.28) | |
| Prevalence | 50–54 years | 532 3301.87 (4 100 870.67–6 757 218.35) | 9 259 426.38 (7 044 316.02–11 803 604.6) | 73.94 (71.78–74.68) | 3346.03 (2577.66–4247.34) | 2 885.06 (2 194.87–3 677.77) | −0.39 (−0.46 to −0.31) | |
| Prevalence | 55–59 years | 6 258 353.68 (4 870 599.69–7954 449.4) | 11 168 154.82 (8 581 365.30–14 404 590.45) | 78.45 (76.19–81.09) | 4 437.62 (3 453.60–5 640.27) | 3 834.34 (2 946.22–4 945.5) | −0.43 (−0.52 to −0.33) | |
| Prevalence | 60–64 years | 6 536 988.80 (5 057 830.50–8 434 623.48) | 11 291 211.34 (8 646 827.74–14 739 361.03) | 72.73 (70.96–74.75) | 5 313.15 (4 110.92–6 855.52) | 4 807.52 (3 681.61–6 275.66) | −0.44 (−0.54 to −0.35) | |
| Prevalence | 65–69 years | 5 715 901.63 (4 552 217.94–7 105 209.47) | 11 663 465.51 (9 158 534.68–14 732 037.73) | 104.05 (101.19–107.34) | 5 951.89 (4 740.16–7 398.55) | 5 506.35 (4 323.77–6 955.03) | −0.34 (−0.44 to −0.25) | |
| Prevalence | 70–74 years | 4 419 406.72 (3 461 017.13–5 576 808.44) | 9 709 752.50 (7 551 851.09–12 518 011.48) | 119.71 (118.20–124.47) | 6 735.27 (5 274.67–8 499.18) | 5 992.98 (4 661.10–7 726.28) | −0.33 (−0.40 to −0.25) | |
| Prevalence | 75–79 years | 3 387 328.49 (2 730 808.21–4 057 315.96) | 6 683 541.85 (5 293 384.45–8 155 064.18) | 97.31 (93.84–101.00) | 6 941.57 (5 596.18–8 314.56) | 6 433.65 (5 095.47–7 850.16) | −0.30 (−0.35 to −0.26) | |
| Prevalence | 80–84 years | 2001454.10 (1594049.83–2502100.11) | 4521644.89 (3557051.21–5744142.87) | 125.92 (123.15–129.57) | 7 094.23 (5 650.17–8 868.79) | 6 467.73 (5 087.98–8 216.38) | −0.31 (−0.35 to −0.27) | |
| Prevalence | 85–89 years | 804 589.96 (633 377.26–1 017 958.64) | 2 311 223.38 (1 8042 13.69–2 956 396.73) | 187.25 (184.86–190.42) | 6724.40 (5293.48–8507.64) | 6 204.82 (4 843.68–7 936.89) | −0.36 (−0.40 to −0.31) | |
| Prevalence | 90–94 years | 200 797.83 (149 679.81–257 047.47) | 815 562.16 (603 395.22–1 053 582.35) | 306.16 (303.12–309.88) | 5 900.46 (4 398.35–7 553.36) | 5 519.72 (4 083.77–7 130.64) | −0.30 (−0.36 to −0.25) | |
| Prevalence | 95+ years | 41 314.05 (30 031.75–55 519.36) | 221 421.23 (159 541.28–297 070.57) | 435.95 (431.24–435.08) | 5 219.24 (3 793.94–7 013.81) | 4 965.77 (3 578.00–6 662.34) | −0.19 (−0.24 to −0.14) | |
| YLDs | 40–44 years | 155 994.38 (101 696.61–237 903.5) | 220 427.91 (141 163.19–334 634.79) | 41.31 (38.81–40.66) | 72.40 (47.20–110.41) | 66.82 (42.79–101.44) | −0.35 (−0.46 to −0.25) | |
| YLDs | 45–49 years | 187 665.14 (126 633.25–278 287.82) | 299 604.68 (197 100.62–451 273.93) | 59.65 (55.65–62.16) | 108.60 (73.28–161.04) | 91.17 (59.98–137.32) | −0.53 (−0.60 to −0.46) | |
| YLDs | 50–54 years | 234 606.67 (157 666.60–347 432.16) | 389 629.03 (256 253.75–589 974.92) | 66.08 (62.53–69.81) | 147.47 (99.10–218.38) | 121.40 (79.84–183.82) | −0.55 (−0.59 to −0.5) | |
| YLDs | 55–59 years | 278 477.67 (181 740.33–417 467.65) | 473 497.54 (300 069.26–723 126.2) | 70.03 (65.11–73.22) | 197.46 (128.87–296.01) | 162.56 (103.02–248.27) | −0.58 (−0.63 to −0.52) | |
| YLDs | 60–64 years | 296 432.19 (198 545.31–440 111.71) | 484 325.34 (316 652.38–724 247.47) | 63.38 (59.49–64.56) | 240.93 (161.37–357.72) | 206.21 (134.82–308.37) | −0.59 (−0.65 to −0.52) | |
| YLDs | 65–69 years | 269 703.80 (181 437.32–389 817.22) | 518 664.56 (343 756.20–769 800.14) | 92.31 (89.46–97.48) | 280.84 (188.93–405.91) | 244.86 (162.29–363.42) | −0.49 (−0.60 to −0.38) | |
| YLDs | 70–74 years | 217 097.84 (149 852.52–311 755.58) | 446 185.77 (301 264.33–650 096.18) | 105.52 (101.04–108.53) | 330.86 (228.38–475.12) | 275.39 (185.94–401.25) | −0.49 (−0.60 to −0.39) | |
| YLDs | 75–79 years | 168 136.03 (119 268.45–235 745.3) | 317 337.24 (221 322.45–449 882.76) | 88.74 (85.57–90.83) | 344.56 (244.41–483.11) | 305.47 (213.05–433.06) | −0.46 (−0.52 to −0.39) | |
| YLDs | 80–84 years | 99 434.80 (71 671.35–141 330.65) | 215 144.83 (153 525.11–306 900.34) | 116.37 (114.21–117.15) | 352.45 (254.04–500.95) | 307.74 (219.60–438.99) | −0.43 (−0.51 to −0.35) | |
| YLDs | 85–89 years | 38 979.11 (27 296.81–53 729.79) | 108 840.65 (75 629.43–150 528.35) | 179.23 (177.06–180.16) | 325.77 (228.13–449.05) | 292.20 (203.04–404.12) | −0.44 (−0.52 to −0.37) | |
| YLDs | 90–94 years | 9 533.44 (6 401.88–13 590.25) | 37 732.81 (25 201.30–54 680.15) | 295.79 (293.65–302.35) | 280.14 (188.12–399.35) | 255.38 (170.56–370.07) | −0.36 (−0.43 to −0.29) | |
| YLDs | 95+ years | 1 941.75 (1 297.67–2 828.61) | 1 0167.16 (6 764.20–14 770.61) | 423.61 (421.26–422.19) | 245.30 (163.94–357.34) | 228.02 (151.70–331.26) | −0.23 (−0.28 to −0.17) | |
| ASR – age-standardized rate; DALYs – disability-adjusted life-years; EAPC – estimated annual percentage change; UI – uncertainty interval; YLDs – years lived with disability. | ||||||||