Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery in China

Shilei Bi; Lizi Zhang; Jingsi Chen; Lijun Huang; Shanshan Zeng; Jinping Jia; Suiwen Wen; Yinli Cao; Shaoshuai Wang; Xiaoyan Xu; Feng Ling; Xianlan Zhao; Yangyu Zhao; Qiying Zhu; Hongbo Qi; Lanzhen Zhang; Hongtian Li; Lili Du; Zhijian Wang; Dunjin Chen

doi:10.12659/MSM.927681

03 December 2020 : Clinical Research

Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery in China

Shilei Bi^1ACDEF, Lizi Zhang^2ACDEF, Jingsi Chen^134AC, Lijun Huang^1BF, Shanshan Zeng^1BF, Jinping Jia^5B, Suiwen Wen^6B, Yinli Cao^7B, Shaoshuai Wang^8B, Xiaoyan Xu^8B, Feng Ling^8B, Xianlan Zhao^9B, Yangyu Zhao^10B, Qiying Zhu^11B, Hongbo Qi^12B, Lanzhen Zhang^13B, Hongtian Li^14CD, Lili Du^134ACEG*, Zhijian Wang^2AG, Dunjin Chen^134AG

DOI: 10.12659/MSM.927681

Med Sci Monit 2020; 26:e927681

Authors information Article notes Copyright and License information

¹Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
²Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
³ Key Laboratory for Major Obstetric Diseases of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
⁴ Key Laboratory of Reproduction and Genetics of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
⁵Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangzhou Huadu District Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
⁶Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Qingyuan People’s Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
⁷Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Northwest Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Xian, Shaanxi, China
⁸Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
⁹Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henen, China
¹⁰Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing, China
¹¹Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
¹²Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
¹³Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
¹⁴Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China

^*Corresponding Author: Lili Du, e-mail: moc.liamtoh@7018udilil
^*Corresponding Author: Dunjin Chen, e-mail: nc.ude.umhzg@nehcrdzg
^*Corresponding Author: Zhijian Wang, e-mail: moc.361@yyfnjzw

^AStudy design/planning
^BData collection/entry
^CData analysis/statistics
^DData interpretation
^EPreparation of manuscript
^FLiterature analysis/search
^GFunds collection

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Table 3 The most significant variables included in the 2 models.

Variables	Cesarean (n=129)	Vaginal birth (n=884)	First trimester model aOR (95% CI)	P	Pre-labor model aOR (95% CI)	P
Gravity	3 (2,4)	3 (2,3)	0.81 (0.674–0.973)	^*	0.77 (0.634–0.934)	^**
Parity	1 (1,1)	1 (1,1)	2.465 (1.21–5.025)	^*	3.235 (1.496–6.997)	^**
Spontaneous abortion	0 (0,0)	0 (0,0)	3.291 (1.207–8.976)	^*	3.917 (1.391–11.026)	^**
Pre-weight	55 (49,61)	54 (48.5,60)	0.975 (0.955–0.995)	^*
Preterm history	15 (11.6%)	202 (22.9%)	2.345 (1.32–4.166)	^**
Source (Hospital)	108 (83.7%)	792 (89.6%)			0.398 (0.226–0.702)	^**
PROM	43 (33.3%)	187 (21.2%)			0.562 (0.36–0.876)	^*
Antepartum hemorrhage	3 (2.3%)	71 (8%)			4.046 (1.205–13.584)	^*
PAS	3 (2.3%)	3 (0.3%)			0.081 (0.012–0.541)	^*
Neonatal weight	3320 (3012.5, 3500)	3100 (2800, 3350)			0.999 (0.998–0.999)	^***
Oxytocin induction	19 (14.7%)	29 (3.3%)			0.273 (0.139–0.537)	^***
Preeclampsia	5 (3.9%)	14 (1.6%)			0.271 (0.082–0.898)	^*
aOR – adjusted odds ratios; CI – confidence interval; PAS – placenta accrete spectrum; Pre-weight – weight before pregnancy; PROM – premature rupture of membrane. ^* ^ ^*

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Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery in China

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