09 February 2022 : Clinical Research
A Risk Prediction Model for Prolonged Length of Stay in Patients with Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Retrospective Study of 225 Patients in a Single Center in Kunming, China
Lifen Yang1ABCDEFG*, Meihua Li1BCD, Jingkui Shu2BCD, Yanxia Yang1BCD, Qian Huang3BCDDOI: 10.12659/MSM.934392
Med Sci Monit 2022; 28:e934392
Table 4 Variables associated with the risk of prolonged LOS in models 1, 2, and 3.
| Variable | β | S.E | Wald | P | OR | Lower | Upper |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | |||||||
| Constant | 35.508 | 17.811 | 3.974 | 0.046 | |||
| Age (day 1) | 0.038 | 0.019 | 4.169 | 0.041 | 1.039 | 1.002 | 1.078 |
| mMRC scale (day 1) | 1.028 | 0.321 | 10.261 | 0.001 | 2.796 | 1.490 | 5.245 |
| pH (day 1) | −5.558 | 2.418 | 5.282 | 0.022 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.441 |
| HCO (day 1) | 0.074 | 0.035 | 4.585 | 0.032 | 1.077 | 1.006 | 1.153 |
| Model 2 | |||||||
| Constant | −1.347 | 0.547 | 6.059 | 0.014 | |||
| COPD-exacerbated autumn (day 1) | 0.869 | 0.353 | 6.072 | 0.014 | 2.384 | 1.195 | 4.757 |
| mMRC scale (day 1) | 0.873 | 0.322 | 7.349 | 0.007 | 2.394 | 1.274 | 4.501 |
| Corticosteroids use during hospitalization (day 4) | 1.101 | 0.342 | 10.372 | 0.001 | 3.007 | 1.539 | 5.877 |
| Model 3 | |||||||
| Long-term home oxygen therapy (day 1) | 0.874 | 0.308 | 8.041 | 0.005 | 2.396 | 1.310 | 4.383 |
| Charlson index (day 1) | 0.436 | 0.177 | 6.079 | 0.014 | 1.546 | 1.093 | 2.187 |
| ΔPLT | 0.006 | 0.003 | 4.489 | 0.034 | 1.006 | 1.000 | 1.012 |
| ΔPCT | 0.751 | 0.297 | 6.405 | 0.011 | 2.119 | 1.185 | 3.790 |
| LOS – length of stay; mMRC – modified Medical Research Council; PLT – platelet; PCT – procalcitonin; S.E – standard error; OR – odds ratio; Δ – changes between the fourth and first day of hospitalization. | |||||||