09 February 2022: Clinical Research
A Risk Prediction Model for Prolonged Length of Stay in Patients with Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Retrospective Study of 225 Patients in a Single Center in Kunming, China
Lifen Yang 1ABCDEFG* , Meihua Li 1BCD , Jingkui Shu 2BCD , Yanxia Yang 1BCD , Qian Huang 3BCDDOI: 10.12659/MSM.934392
Med Sci Monit 2022; 28:e934392
Table 6 Predictive value of the predictors for prolonged LOS in the final model.
| Variable | AUC (95% CI) | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined | 0.795 (0.730–0.861) | 0.743 (0.674–0.813) | 0.753 (0.655–0.852) | 0.585 (0.486–0.685) | 0.863 (0.804–0.922) |
| Age | 0.596 (0.516–0.676) | 0.816 (0.754–0.877) | 0.342 (0.234–0.451) | 0.472 (0.337–0.6061) | 0.721 (0.654–0.788) |
| Sex | 0.541 (0.498–0.585) | 0.164 (0.106–0.223) | 0.918 (0.855–0.981) | 0.345 (0.278–0.412) | 0.806 (0.667–0.946) |
| mMRC scale | 0.624 (0.558–0.691) | 0.783 (0.717–0.848) | 0.466 (0.351–0.580) | 0.507 (0.388–0.627) | 0.753 (0.686–0.820) |
| COPD-exacerbated autumn | 0.585 (0.524–0.645) | 0.375 (0.298–0.452) | 0.795 (0.702–0.887) | 0.379 (0.302–0.456) | 0.792 (0.698–0.885) |
| Charlson index | 0.577 (0.531–0.624) | 0.237 (0.169–0.304) | 0.918 (0.855–0.981) | 0.366 (0.296–0.436) | 0.857 (0.751–0.963) |
| Corticosteroids use during hospitalization | 0.631 (0.568–0.693) | 0.480 (0.401–0.560) | 0.781 (0.686–0.876) | 0.419 (0.336–0.502) | 0.820 (0.740–0.900) |
| LY | 0.578 (0.494–0.663) | 0.342 (0.267–0.418) | 0.479 (0.365–0.594) | 0.259 (0.185–0.333) | 0.578 (0.476–0.680) |
| HCO3− | 0.614 (0.532–0.695) | 0.684 (0.610–0.758) | 0.534 (0.420–0.649) | 0.448 (0.344–0.553) | 0.754 (0.682–0.826) |
| pH | 0.566 (0.490–0.642) | 0.566 (0.487–0.645) | 0.288 (0.184–0.392) | 0.241 (0.151–0.331) | 0.623 (0.542–0.704) |
| ΔPLT | 0.559 (0.474–0.645) | 0.816 (0.754–0.877) | 0.342 (0.234–0.451) | 0.472 (0.337–0.606) | 0.721 (0.654–0.788) |
| ΔPCT | 0.580 (0.497–0.663) | 0.849 (0.792–0.906) | 0.301 (0.196–0.407) | 0.489 (0.343–0.635) | 0.717 (0.651–0.782) |
| LOS – length of stay; mMRC – modified Medical Research Council; LY – lymphocyte; PLT – platelet; PCT – procalcitonin; AUC – area under the curve; CI – confidence interval; NPV – negative predictive value; PPV – positive predictive value; Δ – changes between the fourth and first day of hospitalization. | |||||