BACKGROUND: As an important aspect of tumor heterogeneity, genetic variation may influence susceptibility and prognosis in different types of cancer. By exploring the prognostic value of genetic variation, this study aimed to establish a model for predicting postoperative survival and assessing the impact of variation on clinical outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIAL AND METHODS: A genome-wide association study of 367 patients with HCC was conducted to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with prognosis. Identified predictors were further evaluated in 758 patients. Two prognostic models were established using Cox proportional hazards regression and Nomogram strategy, and validated in another 316 patients. The effect of the SNP rs2431 was analyzed in detail.

RESULTS: A prognostic model including 5 SNPs (rs10893585, rs2431, rs34675408, rs6078460, and rs6766361) was established and exhibited high predictive accuracy for HCC prognosis. The panel combined with tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage resulted in a significantly higher c-index (0.723) than the individual c-index values. Stratified by the Nomogram prediction model, the median overall survival for the low-risk and high-risk groups were 100.1 versus 30.8 months (P<0.001) in the training set and 82.2 versus 22.5 months (P<0.001) in the validation set. A closer examination of rs2431 revealed that it may regulate the expression of FNDC3B by disrupting a microRNA-binding site.

CONCLUSIONS: This study established prediction models based on genetic factors alone or in combination with TNM stage for postoperative survival in patients with HCC, and identified FNDC3B as a potential therapeutic target for combating HCC metastasis.

Keywords: Carcinoma, Hepatocellular, Genome-Wide Association Study, Asians, Fibronectins, genetic testing, Liver Neoplasms, nomograms, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Postoperative Period, Risk Factors