BACKGROUND: This study developed and validated a nomogram to predict patient prognosis for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) of the head of the pancreas following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective data were obtained from 4,383 patients with PDAC of the head of the pancreas who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between 2004–2013 from 11 Registries Research Data of the Surveillance, Epidemiology,and End Results (SEER) database. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent risk factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The results were externally validated by comparison with data from 1,743 patients from 7 other Registries Research Data.

RESULTS: Of the 4,383 patients in the training dataset, median disease-specific survival (DSS) was 17.0 months (range, 1.0–131 months), and postoperative 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DSS rates were 70.3%, 26.1%, and 16.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that patient sex, age, tumor grade, regional lymph nodes examined, positive regional lymph nodes, tumor size, extent of local invasion, and tumor metastases were independent risk factors for DSS. The C-index of the internal validation dataset for prediction of DSS was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.63–0.65), which was superior to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging, 0.57 (95% CI, 0.56–0.58) (P<0.001). The 5-year DSS rates and median DSS time for patients in the low-risk group were significantly greater compared with high-risk group (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: A validated prognostic disease-specific nomogram for patient survival in PDAC of the head of the pancreas following pancreaticoduodenectomy was developed.

Keywords: Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal, nomograms, Pancreaticoduodenectomy