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13 September 2017 : Clinical Research  

External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients

Haiyan Li12345BCE, Runhua Zhang1234BE, Gaifen Liu1234BCD, Liping Liu1234BF, Yilong Wang1234BF, Yongjun Wang1234AD*

DOI: 10.12659/MSM.903050

Med Sci Monit 2017; 23:4415-4421

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The present study aimed to validate the pooled cohort risk (PCR) equations in a Chinese ischemic stroke population and to explore its prognostic value in predicting stroke recurrence, coronary heart disease, and vascular death.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients were selected from the China National Stroke Registry. The C statistic was used to examine the clinical prediction of the scores. To analyze the relevant risk factors, univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed.

RESULTS: Out of a total of 22 216 patients, 8287 patients (including 7652 acute ischemic stroke [AIS] and 635 transient ischemic attack [TIA] patients) were selected and enrolled in the study. At 1-year follow-up, for stroke recurrence rate, the C statistic value was 0.584 in AIS patients and 0.573 in all patients. For non-fatal myocardial infarction, the C statistic value was 0.533 in AIS patients and 0.493 in all patients. For vascular death, the C statistic value was 0.592 in AIS patients and 0.592 in all patients. For all events, the C statistic value was 0.582 in AIS patients and 0.575 in all patients. For AIS patients, the 12-month cumulative rates for recurrent stroke, vascular death, and combined vascular events were higher in the high-PCR group (PCR ≥20%).

CONCLUSIONS: Pooled cohort risk equations may serve as potential tools to predict and stratify the 1-year risk of recurrent stroke and combined vascular events in AIS/TIA patients in China.

Keywords: Pooled Cohort Risk Equations, acute ischemic stroke, Recurrence, transient ischemic attack

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Medical Science Monitor eISSN: 1643-3750
Medical Science Monitor eISSN: 1643-3750